Manage commodity price fluctuations

Savings & Finance

Commodity price fluctuations | mitigating price volatility

Jasmiina Toikka Sep 29, 2021

Commodity meaning in procurement 

In procurement, a commodity means raw or semi-processed materials used in the production of good. Commodities cover a wide range of items including chemicals, agricultural produce, oils, minerals and fuels. The range of commodities is growing to include alternative energy sources, synthetic materials and specialty metals. Intangibles such as labor and support services are not considered to be commodities.

Ensuring reliable supply of commodities at a right price, paired up with accurate demand forecasting is a complex art to master. Commodities are business critical items, of high value and subject to major fluctuations in price. According to Procurious (source), there is a shift from just-in-time (JIT) supply strategy towards companies maintaining reasonable buffer stock that considers the risk of supply disruptions. The pandemic was a stark reminder that procurement and suppliers are mutually dependent, Procurious continues. The commodity marketplace is unpredictable, and buyers must adapt to this volatile environment – together with their supplier network.


What is commodity price risk?

Price risk means the risk of unmanageable price increases. According to Deloitte (source), ”commodity price risk is the financial risk on an entity’s financial performance/profitability upon fluctuations in the prices of commodities that are out of the control of the entity.” Fluctuations in commodity prices affect production costs, product pricing, profitability, earnings and credit availability.

The most recent report by the World Bank for August records that energy prices were down by 2.1% after rising every previous month in 2021 (source). Fertilizers were up 3% but agricultural commodities hardly moved. Metals and minerals were down more than 4%. What does this mean for your business, and for procurement? Commodity price fluctuations affect profitability of the company and its ability to forecast and plan for future. The responsibility for managing commodity price fluctuations often sits within Procurement although the Finance and Treasury functions play a vital role in devising strategies to mitigate the overall business risk. Procurement often is in closest connection with the external partner network, and therefore has access to data and insights that might indicate market price changes.


Price volatility

Commodity price volatility needs to be addressed to maintain profitability. Price fluctuation is not likely to lessen or disappear. McKinsey reports (source) that ”increased geopolitical and climatological unpredictability has contributed to uncertainty around commodity outputs, leading to persistent volatility in prices. The annualized volatility of commodity prices averaged 10 to 20 percent over the past four years, with annual price swings of up to 70 percent of that year’s average price.”   Price fluctuations in the purchase prices of commodities lead to uncertainty in the profit margin of the finished product. Failure to manage price increases may lead to the need to pass the extra cost on to the customer or alternatively restructure the bill of materials (BOM). See example below.

 commodity price fluctuations example

Mitigating price volatility

Mitigating price risk means reducing cost uncertainty. Most organizations procure their commodities based on market pricing. This is achieved by using long-term supply contracts or on spot buying. To mitigate risk, companies usually use either:

  • Financial hedging. Financial hedging is an action that protects against adverse price movement to remove the uncertainty.
  • Supply strategies. Companies may use multiple suppliers to ensure competitive pricing and mitigate the impact of potential price increases, or apply collaborative partnership approach. They may implement fixed price purchase agreements or agreements with pre-agreed cap for price increases.
  • Demand management. Reconstructing product BOM and thereby reducing use of the commodity is alternative mean of managing negative price effects.



The goal of financial hedging is to mitigate the risk of external market price fluctuations. Derivative instruments such as forwards, futures, swaps and options are examples of some of the instruments used by companies to mitigate risk. There is a lack of understanding in some procurement teams as to how futures or forward contracts work and the range of hedging options that are available to them. Liquidity differs between instruments affecting their effectiveness in differing situations.

Hedging involves interacting with external parties such as brokers and their chosen exchanges such as Euronext, the Intercontinental Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Using an outside trading company or broker can be more expensive than hedging the exposure yourself, but the benefit can be greater flexibility and peace of mind. Management of commodity price risks and the use of instruments to hedge these risks require a strong governance structure. Many companies are tempted to hedge their commodity prices when market prices are low, but this is equivalent to betting on the market. If a risk is difficult or expensive to hedge, the focus needs to be on reducing the exposure to that risk.


Supply strategies

Fixed price agreements with one supply partner mean that volumes are secured for the duration of the contract, usually at the prevailing market price. This enables both parties better planning of their financials for the years to follow. Variations on this type of contract can include price caps, either a fixed % increase or increases aligned to a commodity price index. This way the risk of price increases is shared between the supplier and the buyer, leaving both parties the responsibility to manage their financial performance efficiently to avoid and plan for the harmful impact of commodity price increases. Long-term “collar price” limits define the maximum and minimum prices which avoid large positive or negative fluctuations. There may be an opportunity to engage with second-tier suppliers within these contracts for a fuller transparency and security.

Contracted suppliers with well-developed supply market intelligence skills have an advantage when it comes to negotiating raw material and commodity pricing. Procurement should be equally well informed and make educated supply decisions. Engaging with multiple suppliers is an alternative strategy but there is a downside, you lose price leverage on volume commitment.

Mid-size companies have started to focus more on risk management and opportunistic hedging rather than relying on fixed-price contracts. The gradual shift from a cost-managed approach only to a combination approach is a trend. Hedging instruments like futures, swap, and options play a part in offsetting risk.  


Demand management

Another way of managing commodity prices is to reduce the reliance on that material through changes to design, production or supply chain processes. This can be achieved through re-specification, continuous improvement with suppliers, and promotion of innovation practices. Procurement can identify cost effective alternatives together with various stakeholders or try to challenge demand. There may be an opportunity to change the product mix thereby reducing the need for commodities that are particularly subject to fluctuating prices. To provide a practical example, in the food industry prices of grains and oils are volatile and there may be possible cheaper substitutes.


What is procurement’s role in managing commodity prices?

To manage commodity risk, successful category manager needs to:

  • understand the most important commodities per supplier and the finished product cost drivers,
  • be immersed in their commodity markets and proficient in benchmarking techniques,
  • have access to real-time market price data, forecasts and trends in a centralized database, and
  • become proficient in supply contract negotiation and financial risk management.

Materials forecasting commodity price

The nature of commodities, internal purchasing requirements and risk appetite all-together dictate the nature of sourcing management. Commodity buyers should perform thorough due diligence to understand the external market dynamics and internal requirements to determine the risk mitigation approach.

Sievo has partnered up with key market data providers to enrich your data with current market developments. Sievo provides you the transparency to see which areas of your spend is exposed to market price volatility, enabling you to assess financial risk and seek opportunities within categories.

Download Materials Forecasting whitepaper HERE or book a DEMO if you’re keen on learning more on commodity spend management!


Header picture credit: Erwan Hersy (     

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